51%
% Wins - Prediction by RTF
49%
The Heavyweight Grand Prix features a wide variety of styles — and this clash between Ahmet Krnijic and Keaton Gomes is a perfect example.
The Bosnian is a giant who can use his mass to smother opponents, wear them down through pressure and inside fighting, yet also operate effectively from range.
The South African, by contrast, is a relatively small Heavyweight who relies on sharp combination punching. Gomes constantly presses forward, bursts inside to his preferred mid-range, lands three or four quick shots, and then pivots away.
At 26, Gomes is two years younger than his rival but already more seasoned in pure boxing terms. He’s suffered three defeats and faced a variety of opposition in South Africa before entering the Grand Prix. This tournament marks the best run of his career — three straight stoppage wins, including a notable victory over dangerous American puncher Devon Young.
Krnijic has one recognizable name on his record — Tsotne Rogava, whom he defeated by judges’ decision in the previous Grand Prix round. Still, Ahmet brings plenty of combat experience from his kickboxing background and looks fully comfortable in the professional ring.
On average, Gomes throws slightly more — 16 punches per round compared to Krnijic’s 14. Cumulatively, though, Krnijic has more total punches due to spending more rounds in the tournament.
Their accuracy is roughly equal, though Krnijic has a clear edge in power punching: he lands 31% of his power shots compared to 22% for Gomes. Another key stat — Krnijic targets the body far more often, throwing 36.4% of his punches to the body (68 of 187), while Gomes lands just 8.6% (5 of 58).
Neither fighter appears worn down. Krnijic ended two of his three bouts early, and Gomes has spent only six total rounds in the Grand Prix — two first-round wins and one in the fourth.
However, in the semifinals, they’ll fight in 12-ounce gloves. That’s not a huge barrier for big men, but it could slightly affect the impact of their punches.
Both men clearly hit hard — their knockout records speak for themselves. Still, Gomes appears the more explosive of the two. He starts fast, applying immediate pressure, and his combinations are difficult to withstand. If Krnijic fails to control the opening moments, this could turn into a short and dramatic fight.
Both have shown solid chins, but that doesn’t mean they’re invincible. A clean heavy shot from either side could end things quickly. Gomes has been stopped before entering the Grand Prix, while Krnijic can also be hurt if he allows too many clean hits.
Results have been consistent throughout the tournament, suggesting the fighters feel comfortable competing in Saudi Arabia. The venues change each round, but performance levels remain high — and that trend will likely continue.
Mental preparation will play a major role here. Gomes starts aggressively — something his opponent must prepare for not only physically and technically, but mentally. He’ll bite down and charge forward, trying to break through and do damage early.
If Krnijic can stay composed and avoid trading on Gomes’s preferred range, the fight could become far more tactical and interesting. The Bosnian is the bigger, stronger man, and as seen against Rogava, he knows how to pace himself — a strategy that could again bring him victory.
248
Total number of punches thrown per round282
23 (9%)
Total number of punches landed per round19 (7%)
72
Total number of jabs thrown per round106
2 (3%)
Total number of jabs landed per round3 (3%)
176
Total number of power punches thrown per round176
21 (12%)
Total number of power punches landed per round16 (9%)
22to the head
1to the body
16to the head
3to the body