Muhammet Kamily is a versatile boxer, comfortable switching stances and applying smart pressure. In his last outing, he repeatedly backed the larger Dorgbetor to the ropes and showed he can box effectively on the front foot or off the back. Against Semonchuk in the opening round, he had to do both—and handled the challenge well.

Troy Nash, meanwhile, is arguably one of the most polished fighters in the entire tournament. At just 20 years old, he’s sharp, composed, and remarkably efficient. Fast hands, excellent timing, sharp counters—he does it all at a high level.

Kamily is five years older and has more pro bouts—16 to Nash’s 5. But in this case, that experience gap is unlikely to be decisive.

Why? Because both fighters are clearly well-schooled, intelligent, and technically gifted. Kamily hasn’t been in any truly elite-level fights yet, so this bout will likely be decided by skills, not mileage.

Statistically, Kamily throws more punches, has slightly better overall accuracy, and lands power shots at a higher rate. So why isn’t he the favorite?

One major reason: the jab gap.

Troy Nash throws around 210 jabs per fight at 21% accuracy. Kamily throws 141 jabs on average, landing just 13%.

This means Nash controls range masterfully, often neutralizing opponents before they can find their rhythm or range. In the Grand Prix so far, he’s outclassed two tricky Kazakh fighters—both known for awkward, smothering styles—and handled them with increasing ease.

From round to round, the guys are only getting better. The fact that at first they didn’t even know who they would fight with has an impact. Now they are preparing for a specific opponent and seeing how he performs in a specific format.

It is worth expecting that in the third round the opponents will show even better, stronger boxing.

Neither man is a noted puncher, but Kamily is dangerous in exchanges, especially when he finds rhythm across levels—head and body. He lands meaningful, well-placed combinations that wear opponents down.

But getting close enough to Nash to land those shots? That’s a different story. If Kamily gets in range, it becomes interesting—but Nash’s ability to keep opponents at bay might shut that down entirely.

Both are undefeated, untested under fire, and have never been seriously hurt. A well-placed shot can change any fight, but a clean knockout from a head shot looks unlikely in this matchup.

More realistic scenarios. A body shot breakthrough. One fighter accumulating damage. A corner stoppage after one man gets outclassed

Both fighters are now fully acclimated to Riyadh. Each looked significantly sharper in their second Grand Prix bout than in their first. The climate, time zone, and crowd atmosphere won’t be a factor here.

This fight is a true litmus test for both men. Kamily has cruised through the tournament so far, dropping very few rounds.

Nash has improved fight-over-fight, showing growth even against tougher opposition.

Nash is already drawing attention from insiders and talent scouts. A win here would significantly boost his stock.

Kamily enters as the underdog, which makes a potential upset all the more powerful. Outboxing a slick, technically sound American like Nash would be a huge statement—especially after Nash’s dominant performance in the last round.