If there was ever a pair to brilliantly close out the year, Inoue vs. Picasso is 100% it.

The thing is, David is an offensive-style boxer. His entire time in the ring is spent doing exactly that—pressuring his opponent, combining punches, and forcing mistakes. He works the body exceptionally well, with more than one victory coming from shots to the midsection. Overall, he is an active, flashy boxer.

Facing him this time is the exact type of fighter who usually dismantles such attempts. Naoya Inoue is one of the toughest boxers of modern times. Simply marching forward against him is not just dangerous—it can lead to a finish as early as the first half of the encounter.

Moreover, the Japanese fighter doesn't necessarily have to break his opponent in a brawl. He can try to pressure them, or conversely, allow them to express themselves only to punish them for their mistakes. Inoue is a versatile boxer, and the notion that he is purely an offensive athlete does not reflect reality.

Therefore, it will certainly be interesting to watch: a tough aggressor from Mexico against a Japanese fighter who can change the course of a bout from round to round.

On one hand, Inoue is the older boxer. At 32, he has more than one difficult fight behind him. Several weight class changes, each time facing larger opponents with heavier hands—none of this is easy, especially against a 25-year-old opponent.

On the other hand, there is no point in comparing their records. The two-time undisputed champion from Japan has fought Donaire, Moloney, Akhmadaliev, Cardenas, Nery, Fulton, and a host of other truly top-tier boxers. Picasso cannot boast similar names on his record. Generally, he has not defeated anyone close to Inoue's level, and only a few of David’s opponents were even on par with Inoue’s past foes.

This part is interesting.

Inoue is a very precise boxer. He doesn't waste energy in the ring on unnecessary actions; his efficiency is enviable. But statistically, he trails Picasso in almost every category.

He lands less frequently—18% compared to the Mexican’s 31%. His jab is less accurate—13% vs. 28% reaching the target. Power punches are one of Naoya's strongest suits, yet even here he trails: 24% against his counterpart’s 32%.

Why is this?

We covered this in the previous point: the level of opposition. Inoue has good numbers against top-tier opponents in constant title fights and defenses. Picasso is only just reaching this level. It’s not just the statistics that matter, but who they were earned against. Thus, whether David can remain just as effective against one of the best remains to be seen in the fight.

Picasso hasn't been full of surprises this year. He has fought only once, though it was a good win against Kyonosuke Kameda. It was close and difficult—one judge even scored it a draw. But David won, passing a great test.

Inoue warned from the start that 2025 would be an active year for him. He desperately wants to reclaim the P4P leadership and has set to work. This will be the Japanese fighter's fourth bout this year. He stopped two opponents early and defeated Akhmadaliev by decision.

This activity can be both a positive and a negative. Recovery time is just as important as a smart training camp. However, we won’t know for sure until we see them in the ring. As of now, Naoya does not look exhausted by such a schedule. Whether it shows in the ring is the main question.

Picasso is accurate and sufficiently tough. His most unexpected weapon is the body shot that loops around the guard and is extremely hard to defend against. At the same time, one shouldn't overlook how he uses feints to set up his shots during attacks. In boxing, it's not just the power that decides things, but when and where the fist lands.

Meanwhile, Inoue's punching power is a proven factor. It is what can stop an offensive boxer and overwhelm a counter-puncher. It’s the X-factor that can turn any confrontation in the Japanese fighter's favor.

Inoue is not made of reinforced concrete. He has been dropped by Cardenas and Nery. Both are Mexican, just like Picasso. Both are flashy, offensive, and quite accurate. It could definitely be dangerous.

At the same time, Naoya knows how to both get up and return to the fight. And once he returns, his opponent is not to be envied.

Whether Picasso can withstand his counterpart's punches is unknown. It will be difficult—that’s for sure. But with the right approach, there is certainly a chance to stay on his feet. This is all individual, but Inoue's strength lies not just in his hard fists, but in how he creates the conditions for his opponent to miss and take heavy fire.

Both will be boxing in Saudi Arabia for the first time. It’s unlikely there will be an advantage for either man. A Mexican against a Japanese fighter in a bout abroad for both.

New experience, new arena. Everything is fair.

Naoya Inoue is planning ahead. He wants a meeting with Nakatani and is thinking about other fighters. So far, there has been no reason to doubt the reality of his plans—or the fact that even with these thoughts, the Japanese fighter still takes his opponents seriously.

If this rule fails to apply, Picasso could punish him. He could steal rounds or move away when things get tough. He could endure through youth and health where his opponent applies pressure, and take the fight through activity and body attacks.

This is, of course, theoretical and assumes that Inoue might physically fade due to his schedule or underestimate his opponent. If that doesn't happen, David is a prime candidate for a swift Naoya counter-attack, leading the Japanese star toward the biggest fight in his country's history in 2026.