Super Middleweight
63%
% Wins - Prediction by RTF
37%
The first meeting revealed two key things: Munguía can beat Surace, and Surace can exploit the holes in Munguía’s defense.
By the time of the knockout, Jaime was winning the fight.
He was applying smart pressure, not letting his opponent rest, and landing more frequently.
But a momentary lapse in concentration allowed Surace — a fighter supposedly lacking serious punching power — to knock him out instantly.
Surace is 26 years old, Munguía is 28.
Jaime, without a doubt, has much more experience.
However, in the rematch, that won't be the most important factor.
What matters most is what adjustments both fighters made after their first encounter.
Jaime throws significantly more punches than his opponent — something he clearly demonstrated in their first fight.
Surace’s game is built around counterattacks, stopping his opponent's momentum, and capitalizing on mistakes — mistakes that are inevitable given Munguía’s aggressive style.
The key point is what happened in their previous fight.
Munguía and Surace met in December 2024, and their bout turned out to be the biggest upset of the year.
Since then, both fighters have been preparing exclusively for the rematch, using the information they gathered from their first meeting.
Both have been mentally charging themselves during all this time specifically for the second showdown.
On one hand, Munguía certainly possesses real punching power.
We saw this in the first meeting, where Surace was visibly feeling the weight of Jaime’s punches.
On the other hand, Jaime will now be much more cautious — because the opponent he underestimated managed to knock him out, proving that raw punching power isn't the only way to score a knockout.
It's not that Munguía can’t take a punch.
But even in his fight against Canelo, and again versus Surace, he showed signs of discomfort under fire.
Even during the bout with Bazinyan, which took place between these two fights, Jaime at times struggled to absorb his opponent’s shots.
Bruno Surace proved he can absorb Munguía’s power.
The bigger question is: what will Surace do if Jaime boxes more intelligently this time?
Both fighters will be boxing in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia for the first time.
However, the fight will take place early in the morning local time — a major unknown factor.
How the fighters will handle such unusual timing could be crucial — and it’s impossible to predict.
For Munguía, this is a matter of pride — to get revenge.
He was winning the first fight but lost focus and paid for it with a knockout.
However, for Surace, this is a fight that could not only shock the world again but also earn him a chance to move permanently into a bigger, more lucrative division.
Both fighters know each other well and understand what to expect.
This rematch is simply the natural continuation of their unfinished story.
Total number of punches thrown per fight
367
Total number of punches thrown292
Total number of punches landed per fight
105 (29%)
Total number of punches landed64 (22%)
Total number of jabs thrown per fight
193
Total number of jabs thrown185
Total number of jabs landed per fight
28 (15%)
Total number of jabs landed29 (16%)
Total number of power punches thrown per fight
174
Total number of power punches thrown107
Total number of power punches landed per fight
77 (44%)
Total number of power punches landed35 (33%)
54to the head
51to the body
54to the head
10to the body