Heavyweight
7%
% Wins - Prediction by RTF
93%
It is quite interesting to discuss the stylistic approach to a bout that many view as an unauthentic confrontation. Be that as it may, it is intriguing to see what the opponents can do if they step out to fight seriously.
Jake Paul has a series of positive attributes. Firstly, he can be quite mobile. This is not the same situation as with Usyk, who relentlessly changes angles for both attacks and retreats. But cutting off the American’s breathing room may not be that easy—especially for a boxer who was knocked out and has not returned to the ring since.
Paul truly possesses a solid punch. By landing it accurately at the right moment, he can take down, if not everyone, then certainly a great many opponents. A situation where he throws a heavy overhand counter should not look surprising.
Jake is a hardworking boxer. He conducted a full camp preparing for Gervonta. Then he changed plans, called in giants like Lawrence Okolie and sparred with them. He also enlisted Don Charles. It is unlikely to help much in the final stages of preparation, but it is added psychological pressure on Anthony Joshua.
And what can the Briton do? He doesn't particularly need anything other than to be in shape and do what he always does.
Yes, Jake correctly noted that Joshua has had problems and mostly lost to smaller opponents. But Andy Ruiz or Oleksandr Usyk are not him. Paul has a decent level, but not for a fight against a motivated, trained, and strong Olympic champion. And a former unified Heavyweight champion, at that.
The entire calculation relies on the Briton not taking his opponent seriously enough. That he will sleep on a punch or believe he can withstand anything. In any other case, heavy shots await Jake.
Anthony Joshua is 36 years old, and Jake Paul is 28. The blogger’s advantages end there.
There is no point in having serious discussions about comparing experience. It is worth noting that Jake has good wins. He has delivered top knockouts and convincingly outworked MMA fighters. But, frankly, that is not the level to compare with the caliber of Joshua’s opposition.
Anthony is a former unified Heavyweight world champion. Wladimir Klitschko alone is enough to say that the Briton has a better record. And there were also Dillian Whyte, Povetkin, Ruiz, Pulev, Parker, Breazeale, Martin, Molina, Helenius, Wallin, and even Dubois and Usyk.
It is interesting that, based on the raw numbers, Joshua is not as productive a boxer as Paul.
Anthony does not land as often—14% accuracy versus 21%. And he even has a worse precise power punch metric—29% versus 34%.
But the crucial point is the level of opposition. Jake produced this statistic against ring veterans, MMA cage veterans, and not the strongest boxers. Anthony Joshua produced it in fights against Daniel Dubois, Oleksandr Usyk, Robert Helenius, and company.
Something Joshua has definitely lacked. After the loss to Daniel Dubois, the Briton also sustained an elbow injury. He had to undergo surgery and take longer to return to action.
During this time, Jake has at least met Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. And regardless of what shape the latter was in, Paul outboxed the former world champion by judges’ decision.
Jake can hit hard. And he can do it accurately. And this could potentially hurt Joshua.
But it is difficult to compare here. Because the accuracy and ferocity of a ready-to-fight Anthony’s attacks are at an elite level. It is a shot that can switch off anyone and has switched off many throughout his career.
Along with this, the Briton is also noticeably bigger than his opponent. Therefore, the American should hope that Joshua does not land that one specific shot early on. And that he later gets tired and loses his sharpness.
Jake has taken punches quite well throughout his career, although he has been hit. Of course, no one has hit him as hard as Joshua can land.
However, the legend of Anthony’s poor chin is nothing more than fiction. Andy Ruiz never fully knocked out the Briton. Usyk troubled him but did not finish him. Klitschko even sent him to the canvas but did not win. Povetkin also landed shots—to no avail. The same goes for Dillian Whyte.
Joshua can take a punch. And he will likely withstand all of Jake’s shots. Or at least the absolute majority of them.
For Anthony Joshua, this is his second fight in the USA. The first one turned out frankly bad. He faced Andy Ruiz, who had prepared for about a month. And who became the first boxer to defeat the Briton as a professional—and did so by stoppage.
For his part, Jake will not be boxing in Miami for the first time. Paul made his professional debut in Miami—he knocked out his opponent in the first round then.
This is an amazing meeting, which on one hand is quite difficult to take seriously, but on the other hand has a lot at stake.
Yes, Anthony Joshua is the favorite by a huge margin. The more experienced, bigger, stronger boxer. In an adequate reality, he should win not just easily, but vividly and quickly. But for him, that is what is most at stake.
Fans will not forgive the Briton for a loss. They will definitively bury him as a serious boxer if he gets hit, even by accident, and loses. Moreover, he will be regarded poorly even if Anthony wins without enough fanfare. Joshua is expected to deliver not just a win, but a spectacular knockout and a beating of his opponent.
Jake is risking solely his health. In the opinion of most fans, he should lose quickly and harshly. Therefore, any success by Paul will be considered greater than it actually is. Lasting the entire fight, landing a few shots on his opponent, or creating some inconveniences—this will be considered a total success for Paul.
That is why the motivation to show their maximum exists for both. But Jake is obligated to be motivated to deliver everything he has learned over these years.
Total number of punches thrown per fight
78
Total number of punches thrown159
Total number of punches landed per fight
8 (10%)
Total number of punches landed19 (12%)
Total number of jabs thrown per fight
52
Total number of jabs thrown87
Total number of jabs landed per fight
3 (6%)
Total number of jabs landed6 (7%)
Total number of power punches thrown per fight
26
Total number of power punches thrown72
Total number of power punches landed per fight
5 (19%)
Total number of power punches landed13 (18%)
7to the head
1to the body
17to the head
2to the body