Fight Analytics

The fight for the Interim WBC Super Middleweight title deserves close attention, even if it’s not for a full belt. That’s because stylistically this is the kind of matchup fans love — two fighters who bring the fight instead of playing it safe.

Both Christian Mbilli and Lester Martinez are aggressive pressure fighters. They cut off the ring, corner opponents, and force exchanges. They thrive in mid-range brawls, trading punch for punch with heavy volume and power. So far, no opponent has been able to handle that kind of pace from either man.

The fighters are nearly the same age, with Martinez at 29 just one year younger. But in terms of quality opposition, Mbilli is far ahead. While he hasn’t faced endless elite names, his résumé includes Serhii Derevianchenko, Maciej Sulecki, Vaughn Alexander, and Nadjib Mohammedi — all a clear step above Martinez’s competition.

The numbers reflect their stylistic similarities, with both throwing nearly identical volumes of total punches, jabs, and power shots. Yet Mbilli separates himself in two key areas.

Body work: Martinez averages 27 body punches and 165 head punches per fight, while Mbilli lands 89 to the body and 211 to the head. That’s 14.1% body punches for Martinez compared to 29.7% for Mbilli.

Accuracy: Mbilli is more precise across the board (except the jab, which Martinez uses to close distance). Overall accuracy: 24% for Mbilli versus 17% for Martinez. Power punching accuracy: 31% vs 18%.

Both men stay busy. This is their second fight of 2025, with each winning their previous bout inside the distance before the halfway mark. In 2024, Mbilli fought three times while Martinez fought twice. Measured in rounds, Mbilli boxed 17 rounds in 2024 and 1 so far this year; Martinez boxed 12 last year and 4 this year. That’s 18 rounds over two years for Mbilli and 16 for Martinez — nearly even.

Statistically, both hit with destructive force and have broken opponents down in dominant fashion. The real question is whether Martinez’s skills are sharp enough to land cleanly on Mbilli, who is a higher-level opponent than he’s ever faced.

Neither fighter has shown major issues with taking a shot. Their high guards and upper-body movement have helped them avoid fight-ending blows. But with their aggressive styles, exchanges are inevitable, and this fight will be a true test of their chins.

This will be Martinez’s seventh fight in the U.S., compared to Mbilli’s fourth. Still, Mbilli is the bigger star — he holds a belt, is backed by Top Rank, and is positioning himself for a shot at the winner of Canelo Alvarez vs Terence Crawford.

Mbilli is seen as a logical next challenger for Saul Alvarez should he beat Crawford, though Alvarez is already linked to Hamzah Sheeraz unless mandated by the WBC. That makes focus crucial for Mbilli: keep winning, and the opportunity will come.

For Martinez, this fight is a golden chance to steal the spotlight. Can he consistently reach Mbilli with punches? Stylistically, yes. Can he land a big shot? Absolutely. Then we’ll see how solid Mbilli’s chin really is. Martinez is highly motivated — beating a fighter like Mbilli on a stage like this would skyrocket his reputation with both fans and promoters.