Murodjon Akhmadaliev is considered a serious threat to Naoya Inoue for a reason. The Uzbek possesses a range of skills that could potentially create problems for the reigning undisputed champion.

Firstly, Akhmadaliev fights in a southpaw stance. This isn’t a dealbreaker, but Naoya doesn’t feel as comfortable against southpaws as one might expect. Southpaw Luis Nery sent the Japanese fighter to his first proper knockdown in his career. Ramon Cardenas, attacking from a southpaw stance, also put the undisputed champion on the canvas.

Secondly, speed. This applies not only to his hands but also to his footwork. Murodjon moves well and combines punches quickly. He can slip off the line of attack or create an angle to land a punch in mere seconds. This is a massive problem for anyone, not just Naoya.

Thirdly, punching power. Simply combining well against Inoue isn’t enough. Even if you confuse the Japanese fighter with technique early on, he won’t back down. He’ll find a way to his opponent, cut off angles, and land his shots. But Akhmadaliev has the kind of power that demands respect and forces opponents to think twice before acting.

Inoue remains the same. No significant decline has been observed in the Japanese fighter. Naoya can counterpunch, but he mostly pressures his opponents—consistently and confidently. He creates situations where they have nowhere to go, as the Japanese fighter smartly cuts off angles and always finds them at a distance that suits him. Then he unleashes his devastating punches, which either turn out the lights or sap every ounce of breath from a boxer by the end of the third count in the ring.

The fighters are almost the same age—32-year-old Inoue is two years older. But the experience gap is noticeable.

On one hand, Akhmadaliev has a bronze medal from the Rio Olympics and the incredibly strong Uzbek boxing school behind him. On the other, Inoue is a far more experienced professional with two undisputed championships under his belt.

Murodjon’s toughest opponents include Velasquez, Rios, and Tapales. There were a few other notable names, but they don’t compare to Naoya, who has defeated nearly everyone: from Donaire (twice) to Fulton, from Moloney to Nery.

We could look at the overall numbers from their last five fights, but you already see those in the fight card. Given the roughly equal number of punches thrown, it’s worth focusing on specific details.

Inoue is noticeably more accurate than his opponent. His overall accuracy is 27% compared to 17%. Jab accuracy is 20% versus 11%, even though Akhmadaliev’s lead hand works exceptionally well. Inoue’s power punch accuracy is a staggering 33% compared to 27% for his opponent. Murodjon has excellent average stats but still falls short of his rival.

Naoya distributes his punches far more diversely. On the hit map, we see that, on average, 300 of the Japanese fighter’s punches target the opponent’s head, and 107 go to the body. For Akhmadaliev, it’s 244 and 34, respectively. This means 26.3% of Inoue’s attacks target the body, while only 12.2% of Murodjon’s do.

It’s worth noting that the Uzbek still works the body effectively. His uppercut, in particular, is precise—several opponents have felt its impact, with some even hitting the canvas after taking it.

Finally, activity in recent fights. Against Cardenas, over 8 rounds, Inoue landed 85 punches—over 10 accurate punches per round. Akhmadaliev, against Castillo, landed 63 punches over 8 rounds—about 7.8 punches per round.

Inoue has maintained a steady pace of two fights per year since 2018, with only one break—in 2020, he had just one fight. This year, Naoya has already fought twice, this will be his third, and a fourth is planned for December if everything goes as expected.

For Akhmadaliev, a steady pace is one or two fights per year. This bout will be Murodjon’s second in 2025.

The fact that Naoya Inoue’s punching power is a massive problem for any opponent is undeniable. The Japanese fighter combines power punches in a way that leaves opponents unsure of which part of their body to protect to avoid even more pain. Naoya can knock out opponents and has done so multiple times, but in general, his punches are painful and can drain an opponent’s strength round by round.

More importantly, how strong is Akhmadaliev’s punch? This will directly determine his competitiveness in this matchup. Preliminary signs suggest the Uzbek’s punch is heavy enough to keep Naoya from rushing into exchanges. At least until the middle of the fight, if it lasts that long. Murodjon is explosive. He can find an angle for attack at an unexpected moment: a half-step shift to the side or a hook thrown while exiting close range. He’s dangerous from any angle, especially early in the fight. And Naoya’s problems have typically come early on.

It’s normal that Inoue has been knocked down. He’s been in many tough fights, taken shots, and now fights in a slightly heavier weight class where opponents hit harder. That said, it’s worth noting how Naoya recovers—pure skill. He doesn’t rush, catches his breath, recovers, and gets up in time. This happened in both instances, so the issues some fighters face when they’re not used to falling and panic shouldn’t affect the Japanese fighter.

Akhmadaliev holds up well. He’s slippery in defense, making it hard to land clean shots. Flexible, mobile, and coordinated. Even if you graze the Uzbek, finishing him off is no easy task.

It’ll be interesting to see both fighters in the second half of the bout. If or when Inoue works the opponent’s body, Akhmadaliev tends to slow down slightly in the latter half of fights. Meanwhile, Naoya starts to find his range and picks up the pace—but he also opens up more. This could create more opportunities to test each other’s body and head.

For Akhmadaliev, this will be his first fight in Japan. Whether this will affect him is unknown. But it won’t be easy, as Inoue is a fan favorite at home, and fighting in a 17,000-seat arena filled with the opponent’s supporters is always tough.

Interestingly, Inoue has never fought in Nagoya either. His recent fights have been at Ariake Arena or Tokyo Dome. So, for Naoya, this venue is also somewhat new.

Inoue is a star. He has plans for several fights ahead. Insiders report preliminary agreements for a fight in December. It’s also no secret that another Japanese boxing star, Junto Nakatani, is about to move up in weight for an interim fight and prepare for a megafight against Naoya, scheduled for early 2026. For him, Akhmadaliev is just another step, but one that deserves serious attention.

Murodjon has been chasing the Japanese fighter for a long time. Naoya never refused but was consistently tied up with other opponents while defending his belts. Akhmadaliev is a genuinely serious test. A fast, smart southpaw with great footwork and power. He has everything needed to defeat the eternal Japanese dominator and disrupt his plans that extend far beyond 2025.

On paper, the Uzbek is a serious threat. He has the motivation. He’s on a streak of three consecutive stoppage victories. He has the skills. The key question is whether he can execute against the “Monster,” who always finds a way to win—sometimes in a very literal, painful sense.