Super Lightweight
55%
% Wins - Prediction by RTF
45%
Barboza Jr
Winner
SD
Win method
Round amount
Detailed Fight Review
A great tactical confrontation in Manchester. Both Catterall and Barboza are boxers who primarily rely on technique and smart tactical actions in the ring, and only later on their ability to land punches, unsettle their opponent, and potentially finish them off.
Jack is a slippery, awkward southpaw. He is a very balanced boxer, difficult to adjust to. He constantly disrupts his opponent's rhythm, drags them into his game, and forces them to fight in a way that suits him.
With Arnold, a lot of analogies can be drawn. He is a moderately risky boxer with a fantastic jab, precise short combinations, and the ability to maintain his opponent at a comfortable distance.
Barboza is two years older—he's 33. However, it cannot be said that his age negatively impacts him in this confrontation. Both Catterall and Barboza have preserved enough health and freshness to appear sharp at this stage.
Their experience is quite similar. Arnold has a series of wins over tough opponents at their prime—Zorrilla, for example, lost to Barboza in his first defeat, and the tough Ndongeni was knocked out early. In addition, Barbosa has fought a stylistically difficult Shawn McComb, once top-level José Pedraza, and former undisputed title challenger José Carlos Ramírez.
Catterall, meanwhile, has recently been clearing the way for former leaders of the division. In three consecutive fights, he defeated Jorge Linares, Josh Taylor, and Regis Prograis. Yes, these fighters were not in their best shape when they fought the Brit, but Jack did it with utmost confidence—just as a person who aims to take the lead should.
Neither boxer can be called a volume puncher, but both regularly throw around 400-500 punches per fight.
Their accuracy is also approximately at the same level. Catterall's accuracy in his most recent fight against Regis Prograis was 20% (83 of 416). Meanwhile, his power punch accuracy was 33.8% (44 of 130). Barboza's overall accuracy in his last bout against Ramírez was 27.2% (150 of 551), with his power punches landing at 36.2% (71 of 196).
Catterall fought twice in 2024, Barbosa three times. All of these fights were victories for the future opponents.
Fans had some questions regarding Arnold's fight against Shawn McComb—everything was very close in that bout. However, overall, both fighters don't waste time and maintain regular practice at a high level.
Despite relatively low knockout percentages on both sides, this characteristic can still be considered an advantage for Catterall. Jack is not a knockout artist, but he has a strong punch. He has good speed, good timing, and at the right moment, Catterall can shake his opponent or even knock them out.
Undoubtedly, Barboza can do this as well, but Arnold's punches seem less threatening with just one clean shot. He is great at breaking down opponents, wearing them out with a cumulative effect, but his punch doesn't seem as heavy as his opponent's.
That said, both boxers last scored knockouts in 2019, which further confirms what we've mentioned above about their styles.
Neither boxer has been stopped early in their career. Barboza went through a calm fight against José Carlos Ramírez, whose punches caused problems for many boxers. Catterall was knocked down in his fight against Prograis, but it was more of a flash knockdown, nothing serious.
Both fighters can take a punch well and have not been in situations where there was cause for concern in that regard.
The clear advantage lies with Catterall. This will be his fifteenth fight in Manchester and his second consecutive fight at the Co-op Arena. The full arena will be filled with his fans.
Barboza will be fighting in Manchester, at the Co-op Arena, and in the UK for the first time. Overall, this will only be his second time fighting outside the United States—his previous bout was in Riyadh in front of neutral fans.
Both boxers approach the fight after important victories, in excellent mental condition. They are physically and psychologically prepared, and for both, this fight is extremely important. A perfect time for an incredible bout.
The key factors will be their psychological and physical readiness, as well as the clash of styles and tactics. Both Catterall and Barboza have proven they can win in big fights. Now they need to prove they are stronger than their opponent in this one.
Main Problem for Arnold – the style of his opponent. Jack is an uncomfortable southpaw. He is somewhat reminiscent of Shawn McComb, who created too many problems for Barboza. But Ketterall has faster punches, quicker footwork, and even more experience.
Main Problem for Catterall – Barboza's size. Arnold is taller with longer reach. He has great footwork and knows how to use his advantages. The question is whether he'll be able to use them against such a tricky opponent in front of his own fans.