56%
% Wins - Prediction by RTF
44%
Smith
Winner
UD
Win method
Round amount
Detailed Fight Review
A British tactical showdown, where danger will remain on both sides until the very end. Both boxers primarily control their comfortable distance and explode with activity in the moments that suit them.
Both are well-trained technically and work smartly from range, so don’t expect a fiery brawl from the very first seconds.
Buatsi is 31, Smith is 34. Both are experienced fighters with a series of important bouts against serious opponents. Callum has fought against Saul Alvarez and Artur Beterbiev, while Joshua is one of the leaders of the division and one of the best British fighters in the light heavyweight category—if not the best.
On average, both Smith and Buatsi are not focused on punch volume, but rather quality. Both typically throw about 400-500 punches per fight. In his fight against Huchinson, Joshua threw 600 punches, meaning he has the capacity to throw more when needed.
Callum usually throws around 400 punches per fight, but he doesn’t always need to. Thanks to his punch power, he often knocks out opponents earlier.
Both fighters fought twice last year. Buatsi won both fights by decision. Smith lost by stoppage to Beterbiev, then returned with a stoppage victory in the 5th round against Carlos Galvan.
The frequency of stoppage wins suggests that Smith is more dangerous in this regard. Callum wasn’t able to cause significant damage to Alvarez or catch Beterbiev with a heavy punch. And this is an important factor—these are tough opponents and big fights, in which the Brit couldn’t apply his main advantage.
That said, Callum still has heavy hands, and you should definitely avoid his punches.
Buatsi isn’t a top puncher, but when he connects, it’s difficult for his opponents. In his last fight against Huchinson, he scored two knockdowns, and Den Aziz was sent down in the 11th round. Joshua can land heavy punches, but it’s not his main focus. His most recent stoppage win came in the 11th round.
Out of the two, only Smith has lost by stoppage. But his opponent was nearly an undefeated knockout artist, Artur Beterbiev, which makes it a significant factor. Even Canelo Alvarez couldn’t knock Callum out, despite Smith spending much of the fight with a single injured hand.
Considering the punching power of both, it’s hard to say for sure whether the fight will end by stoppage. Anything can happen in the ring with these two.
For Buatsi, this will be his first fight in Saudi Arabia. Callum Smith’s track record in this country is much better: in 2018, he knocked out George Groves, and in 2022, he stopped Mathieu Bauderlique.
However, it’s unlikely that the fight in Saudi Arabia will give either British fighter a significant advantage.
For Smith, this is a quick return to the top level. His loss to Beterbiev was definitive, and as expected, his return came against a less challenging opponent. But Buatsi is a whole different level. A win over him could bring Callum a temporary WBC title and the potential for another shot at the full title within the next year.
For Buatsi, being the top light heavyweight in the UK, this fight represents another step toward the biggest showdowns. If he wins, Buatsi will be one of the top contenders for a fight against the winner of the Beterbiev vs. Bivol matchup or the Benavidez vs. Morrell fight. Either way, it’s huge matchups and substantial paydays.