Fight Analytics

Jai Opetaia is an explosive fighter — not one for throwing endless combinations. His offense is reactive: combinations come only when necessary, when an opening appears or the moment demands it. He stalks opponents, throwing short, compact, and highly purposeful punches.

Matteo Scrivano Squeo, on the other hand, is all forward motion and relentless pressure. He throws a high volume of punches, many of them looping hooks. The Italian breaks opponents down with physicality and aggression, not precision.

Paradoxically, the older man is the less experienced one. At 34, Squeo has never fought outside of Italy, and more importantly, has never faced opposition remotely close to Opetaia’s level. His most notable win came against Niklas Räsänen, from whom he captured the European title.

Compared to Jai Opetaia, who is arguably one of the top two cruiserweights in the world, this background looks severely underwhelming.

Opetaia only ramps up his output when necessary — when he smells blood, or is drawn into a firefight like he was with Mairis Briedis. Otherwise, he stays calm, closes the distance, and fires off sharp, punishing combinations.

Squeo? He’s all pressure, all volume. He throws constantly, and although much of it lacks finesse or accuracy, his fights still end up visually exciting.

Both men fought twice in 2024, though Opetaia already made a 2025 appearance.

But the level of opposition is night and day. Squeo’s recent opponents were Niklas Räsänen (17-2-1) and Orlando Estrada (16-18-2). Opetaia? He faced Briedis, Jordan Thompson, and David Nyika — names that need no introduction.

Squeo is physically strong, no doubt — but his power is more accumulative. He wears opponents down. Opetaia, in contrast, carries fight-ending power in every shot. One clean punch can shut the lights out — he’s done it before, and he’ll do it again.

Neither man has been stopped, but that doesn’t tell the whole story.

Opetaia has been severely tested — he fought with a broken jaw against Briedis, went twelve rounds with him again in the rematch, and survived some huge shots from David Nyika. He’s proven his toughness at the absolute highest level.

Squeo simply hasn’t faced the fire to know how he’ll respond. No one even close to Opetaia’s caliber has shared the ring with him.

This will be Squeo’s first-ever fight outside of Italy — and it comes on a stage that’s been very kind to Opetaia. It was here that Jai first defeated Briedis and later knocked out Nyika.

That kind of familiarity can matter — especially in a title defense.

This fight feels like a stay-busy bout for Opetaia. Many fans are openly questioning its relevance — and they have a point. Yes, a champion must fulfill his mandatories, but it’s hard to see how Squeo troubles him stylistically or physically.

The Italian is shorter, slower, and while aggressive, doesn’t bring enough danger to truly threaten the champ. A lucky punch is always possible, especially if Jai takes him lightly — but short of that, it’s difficult to envision any path to victory.

Unless Opetaia shows up unfocused, this is his fight to lose. Otherwise, it’s going to be a very long night for the challenger.