Saul Alvarez vs Terence Crawford: Ready to Fight Prediction

On September 13 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, USA, undisputed Super Middleweight champion, 35-year-old Mexican Saul Alvarez (63-2-2, 39 KOs) will face 37-year-old American Terence Crawford (41-0, 31 KOs).

Saul Alvarez. Two-Time Undisputed and Division Leader

Canelo Alvarez is the best fighter at Super Middleweight. He has proven it by beating everyone around him, including younger challengers like Edgar Berlanga and Jaime Munguia. Saul holds all the belts in the division and has already regained his status once — he briefly lost the IBF title due to inactivity but later took it back from then-champion William Scull. The Mexican has long shown that he is the biggest threat in this weight class, which is why Crawford’s leap up several divisions is seen as highly risky.

Terence Crawford. A Talent Seeking His Place in History

Terence Crawford is a two-time undisputed world champion, having collected all major belts at Super Lightweight and Welterweight. Now he moves up three divisions from his last natural weight to once again fight for all the titles. Crawford had already tested himself at Super Welterweight, where Israil Madrimov gave him problems. Still, Crawford is aiming higher, chasing history as the first three-time undisputed champion in three different weight classes. Oleksandr Usyk is also a three-time undisputed, but he achieved it twice in the same division — Heavyweight.

Interesting Facts Before Alvarez vs Crawford

This is the first fight in the four-belt era between two-time undisputed champions.

Alvarez will be the most experienced opponent in Crawford’s career. No one Crawford has faced has as many fights. Previously, that benchmark was Kell Brook, who had 41 bouts at the time of their meeting — Crawford knocked him out in the fourth round.

Crawford will be the oldest opponent Canelo has faced in three years. In 2022, Alvarez fought Gennadiy Golovkin, who was 40 at the time.

Ready to Fight Prediction

We calculate win probabilities based on key factors: recent success, quality of opposition, how those opponents were beaten, the fighters’ form, and their level of performance.

Crawford is undeniably a master boxer with some of the best skills in the sport — technically the best opponent Canelo has faced in years. But Alvarez is vastly more experienced, with a résumé full of high-level opposition compared to Crawford’s, despite all the respect for his path.

The fight is extremely close technically. The real question is whether the weight will affect each fighter differently — for Crawford, it could reduce speed, reflexes, and stamina at age 37; for Alvarez, it’s whether he can handle someone as technically sharp as Crawford at 168.

Factually, Crawford is more accurate and throws more punches statistically, while Alvarez has far more experience and is established at Super Middleweight. Adding it all together, we give Saul Alvarez a slight edge.

Saul Alvarez – 52%

Terence Crawford – 48%

Detailed and exclusive statistics, as well as Ready to Fight’s full analysis, are available at the provided link.

Photo: CBS Sports