Fight results

When it comes to Pacquiao and Barrios in fighting shape, the stylistic picture is fairly clear. Manny is an offensive fighter. He constantly moves forward throwing combinations, unbalances his opponents with his trademark in-and-out footwork, and pivots after landing punches. His flurries combined with his power made the Filipino a terrifying force in his prime.

Barrios is more versatile. He can press forward and apply pressure when needed, but typically, against aggressive fighters, he boxes on the back foot, looking for counterpunching opportunities. That was the case against the smaller southpaw Gervonta Davis, whom Barrios was outpointing before being stopped. It was similar against Yordenis Ugas, who pressured him throughout.

Mario is accurate and clever—when given time to think. That’s precisely what Pacquiao must not allow: any rest or space for Barrios to plan.

This is the most intriguing part of the matchup. On one hand, we have Manny Pacquiao—a living legend and the only eight-division world champion in history. He’s faced nearly every type of opponent, from Marco Antonio Barrera to Floyd Mayweather. But he’s now 46.

On the other side, Mario Barrios. He’s had tough opponents too—Ugas, Gervonta, Thurman, Akhmedov—but the experience can’t be compared to Pacquiao’s. However, Barrios is just 30. Despite going through tough fights and being stopped by Davis, he’s fresher than the 16-years-older Pacquiao, whose legendary career was punishing.

Combined with a physical size advantage, it’s understandable why fans worry about the Filipino icon’s return.

Pacquiao remains a high-volume puncher. Even in his 40s, he averaged over 500 punches in a 12-round fight—a pace many younger fighters can’t match. Two key points here:

First, a positive: Manny maintains consistent activity throughout fights, rarely slowing significantly.

Second, a concern: Barrios tends to ramp up his activity in the later rounds. Thanks to youth and fresher legs, Mario may have an edge in championship rounds.

Barrios also has better average accuracy: 26% to Pacquiao’s 20%. He lands jabs at twice the rate—24% to 12%. But the power punching numbers paint a different picture.

Pacquiao throws over 300 power shots per fight on average—more than half his total output. His accuracy in this area is 29%, on par with Barrios, and it’s his most effective weapon.

Barrios isn’t the most active fighter, but he’s been consistent: two fights in both 2023 and 2024. He last lost in 2022 and has since posted three wins and a draw.

Pacquiao’s case is far less reassuring. He last fought in 2021, losing to Ugas in a title bout. His last win came back in 2019 against Keith Thurman. That’s a title win followed by a two-year layoff, a loss, and now a four-year absence.

Manny claims the break helped his body recover and that he feels better now than four years ago. But his exhibition bouts didn’t support that claim. Against a large kickboxer, Pacquiao looked mediocre. Fans even urged him not to return to the pro ring.

Still, Pacquiao insists he’s in great shape and ready.

In terms of career knockouts, Pacquiao holds a clear edge. In his prime, opponents crumbled under his punches, and the sound of his shots was bone-chilling.

But factually, he hasn’t scored a stoppage since 2018—a TKO over Lucas Matthysse. Since then, two decision wins and one loss.

Barrios isn’t a knockout artist either. His last stoppage came in 2023. But he has respectable pop. Ugas, who stayed on his feet against Manny, was dropped twice by Barrios. The same goes for Abel Ramos and Fabian Maidana. In Mario’s last four fights, every opponent has hit the canvas at least once.

Both men can be dropped. Pacquiao hasn’t shown signs that age has significantly weakened his chin, but at 46, against a naturally bigger fighter who’s dropped his last four opponents, the risk is real.

Barrios doesn’t have an iron chin either. Abel Ramos dropped him. Gervonta Davis floored him three times and stopped him.

Barrios may be able to take Pacquiao’s punches—Manny hasn’t stopped anyone since 2018. But the danger of getting caught remains.

This will be just Barrios’ second fight at Madison Square Garden. The first was back in 2015, when he stopped Justin Lopez in Round 3.

Pacquiao, meanwhile, first fought there in 2001—when Barrios likely wasn’t even thinking about a pro career. Since then, Manny has fought there 15 times: 10 wins (4 by stoppage), 4 losses, 1 draw.

Pacquiao dreams of becoming the oldest world champion in boxing history. To do that, he can’t just win a title—he’d need to stay at the top for at least three more years. The current record belongs to Bernard Hopkins, who unified titles at 49.

But that’s for later. Right now, Manny faces a serious test, despite what people may say. Barrios is seen by some as the perfect opponent for Pacquiao’s return.

It won’t be easy. Mario is young and solid. No legend, no pound-for-pound elite—but skilled enough, fresh enough, and confident enough to give a legend a hard fight.

For Barrios, this is a must-win. Too many are labeling him as the guy brought in to lose. He must prove that’s not the case. Otherwise, the stigma of being the man who lost to a 46-year-old legend will stick with him forever.