Super Lightweight
58%
% Wins - Prediction by RTF
42%
Matias
Winner
TKO
Win method
Round amount
Detailed Fight Review
The announcement of Subriel Matias vs. Gabriel Valenzuela immediately thrilled boxing fans, as both fighters are known for delivering action-packed fights.
Matias is a relentless aggressor, constantly applying pressure and suffocating his opponents with his high-volume offense. His main strength is his ability to cut off the ring, force his opponents into survival mode, and eventually overwhelm them for a stoppage victory.
Valenzuela, on the other hand, has frequently shown his ability to counter aggressive opponents by fighting off the back foot. He looks for counter opportunities, seizes momentum, and punishes opponents from range. Stylistically, this pairing is made for an explosive fight.
At 32 years old, Matias is two years older than Valenzuela and has significantly more experience in big fights. He was a world champion until recently, successfully defending his title before losing it in a competitive fight.
Valenzuela has faced solid opponents, but he has yet to operate at this level. His most high-profile opponent so far was Montana Love.
Outworking Matias is an almost impossible task—and probably the wrong approach. Only a handful of fighters can match his punch volume, as he can easily throw close to 1,000 punches in a fight.
Valenzuela is certainly not a low-volume fighter, but it’s unlikely he will outwork Matias. Instead, he’ll need to rely on other tools—and thankfully for him, he has them.
Both fighters have been active, each competing twice in 2024. Matias suffered a loss to Liam Paro but rebounded with a stoppage win over Roberto Ramirez. Valenzuela, meanwhile, hasn't lost since 2022—that defeat coming against Montana Love.
Matias has the clear edge in power. The Puerto Rican boasts a 100% KO ratio in his victories. While he doesn’t always score one-punch knockouts, his relentless accumulation of damage is what makes him so dangerous.
Getting caught clean by Matias is something Valenzuela will want to avoid at all costs. His shots are punishing, energy-draining, and devastating when combined with his insane work rate.
Valenzuela has only been stopped once, back in 2016. Matias, despite having two losses, has never been knocked out. Both fighters are known for their willingness to engage and take damage, making this a high-risk fight for both men.
Promoter Eddie Hearn is heavily invested in Matias’ success in Puerto Rico. This will be his third consecutive fight on home soil, meaning he will have the full backing of the crowd.
For Valenzuela, fighting outside Mexico is nothing new—he has competed in the UK, USA, Canada, and Colombia. However, this will be his first fight in Puerto Rico, a country where Matias enjoys superstar status.
Valenzuela is riding a five-fight win streak, with two stoppage victories. He’s confident, has the size to trouble Matias, and a win here could propel him straight into the world title mix.
However, Matias is a different beast—stubborn, seasoned, and fighting with a chip on his shoulder. He’ll be stepping into the ring at home, looking to erase the memory of a loss he personally disagrees with.
There’s also the psychological factor—Matias once had a rare streak where five consecutive opponents quit mid-fight against him. His relentless pace and punishing style have broken many before.
Valenzuela is a great opponent for Matias—tall, rangy, skilled off the back foot. But he also makes mistakes in his counterattacks too often to be considered the favorite in a grueling 12-round war against a machine like Matias.