Faire un pronostic

The clash between Joseph Parker and Fabio Wardley is one of the most fascinating style matchups that could currently be made in the Heavyweight division.

On one side stands the experienced and composed Joseph Parker, a former world champion who has shared the ring with top-tier opposition. His résumé includes Dillian Whyte, Deontay Wilder, Zhilei Zhang, Anthony Joshua, Derek Chisora, Andy Ruiz, and more. Parker is a well-rounded boxer – capable of going a full 12 rounds or finishing an opponent by knockout.

On the other side is Fabio Wardley, who entered boxing through white-collar tournaments. When Parker first became a world champion, Wardley was still fighting office workers and working as a recruitment manager.

However, Wardley clearly possesses natural boxing instincts. He knows exactly when and where to land his punches. While not the most technical or sophisticated boxer, he follows his game plan with precision and carries tremendous power capable of flooring anyone.

Parker is three years older at 33, but the experience gap is enormous. Wardley has only recently stepped up to respectable opposition – still not on the same level as what Parker has consistently faced.

That said, experience is not always an automatic advantage. A long career can also mean accumulated damage and decline. But this is not the case with Parker, who has evolved with age and is currently showing some of the best boxing of his career.

Both men are active fighters. They are not high-volume boxers like Usyk or Fury, but neither spends much time waiting for openings.

Interestingly, their per-round activity follows a similar pattern. Statistically, the 3rd and 8th rounds are among the most productive for both – these are rounds where they tend to throw and land the highest number of punches.

Another key detail: Parker’s activity has tended to dip slightly toward the later rounds recently. It doesn’t disappear, but it noticeably drops off. Meanwhile, Wardley often becomes more aggressive and increases his work rate near the end.

While this trend might not fully repeat here – given Wardley often ends fights early and rarely sees the championship rounds – it raises questions about Parker’s endurance down the stretch.

Both fighters have had one bout in 2025, both won inside the distance – but in very different ways.

Parker stopped Martin Bakole. It was a solid win, though Bakole had barely prepared, arrived only a day before, and was quickly overwhelmed.

Wardley knocked out Justis Huni, but he was clearly losing on points up until the 10th round, when he landed a punch he had been setting up for several minutes.

The clear advantage lies with Wardley. Fabio hits extremely hard and can end the fight with a single shot.

Parker also carries respectable power, but not to the same degree. Both statistics and cold facts support this: Wardley is the pure puncher in this matchup.

Wardley likely has the edge here as well – not only because he’s never been stopped, but because he genuinely absorbs punches well.

His defense is not perfect – he has been caught clean by the likes of Adeleye and Huni – but those shots never broke him.

Parker, on the other hand, has been knocked down and has lost via stoppage. Still, he has shown the ability to recover and even win after being floored. His stoppage loss to Joe Joyce was more a case of exhaustion than unconsciousness.

It should also be noted: Parker has previously defeated opponents considered extremely durable – for example, stopping Martin Bakole. With precise implementation, a knockout is possible for either side.

The O2 Arena has historically been unlucky for Parker. He fought there only once – against Dillian Whyte – and lost by decision.

Wardley, meanwhile, has fought there seven times: six knockouts and one draw.

This fight is crucial for both men. The WBA Interim title is on the line, and even if Parker loses, he still holds the WBO Interim belt.

The matchup is also viewed as a potential gateway to a fight with Oleksandr Usyk. While Parker is formally next in line for the undisputed champion, the actual winner here could become a more attractive target for the Ukrainian.

Additionally, Parker is on a strong winning streak, and it is vital for him not to break momentum – as happened after his loss to Joyce and the close call against Chisora. He is currently in peak condition: strong, experienced, and still relatively young. From a pure boxing standpoint, he is the more versatile fighter, making him the logical favorite.

Unless Wardley lands his trademark counter shot. Fabio is nearly perfect at timing that kind of punch.