Oleksandr Usyk vs Daniel Dubois II: Fight Prediction by Ready to Fight

On July 19, in London, England, at Wembley Stadium, IBF Heavyweight Champion Daniel Dubois (22-2, 21 KOs) will face WBA, WBC, WBO, and IBO Heavyweight Champion Oleksandr Usyk (23-0, 14 KOs) in a high-stakes unification bout.

Daniel Dubois: A Remarkable Streak and Talk of a Reinvention

Dubois is only 27, yet discussions about his “reinvention” are already widespread. Early stoppage defeats to Joe Joyce and Oleksandr Usyk — where the Briton chose not to continue after absorbing damaging shots — left many fans disappointed.

But Dubois has turned it around.

Knockout victories over Jarrell Miller, Filip Hrgović, and Anthony Joshua have forced a reevaluation. He is now seen as a revitalized version of himself — and, according to many, a legitimate threat to the Ukrainian.

Oleksandr Usyk: The Definitive Heavyweight of His Generation

In discussions about Dubois’ run, Usyk’s own streak is often overlooked. He has defeated Tyson Fury twice — the man widely viewed as the division’s long-standing No. 1. Usyk became the first Undisputed Heavyweight Champion in 25 years. That title alone says everything.

Yes, Usyk is now 38. But in the modern heavyweight era — with its advances in training and recovery — that age is no longer critical. And recent performances leave no doubt about the Ukrainian’s condition.

Usyk is, without question, the face of this generation’s heavyweight boxing. That much is no longer up for debate.

Key Facts Ahead of Usyk vs Dubois II

Their first fight took place in August 2023 in Wrocław, Poland. The bout lasted eight full rounds before Usyk scored a ninth-round knockout with a jab. Before the finish, Usyk had won seven of the eight rounds on all judges’ scorecards.

Statistically, Dubois is the hardest puncher Usyk has ever faced: 95.45% KO ratio. Anthony Joshua is second with nearly 90%, followed by Tyson Fury at just over 70%.

This will be Usyk’s eighth world title fight on foreign soil. He’s previously defeated Glowacki, Hunter, Huck, Briedis, Gassiev, Bellew, and Joshua away from home. Only the bout with Briedis went to a majority decision; all others were either unanimous or stoppage victories.

For Usyk, it’s his second fight at Wembley — but his first with fans in attendance. His previous bout there against Derek Chisora took place behind closed doors due to COVID restrictions. Dubois, by contrast, has fought twice at Wembley and won both inside the distance — scoring knockouts before the midway point in 2019 and 2024.

Ready to Fight’s Prediction: Usyk vs Dubois II

We assess probabilities, not absolute outcomes. Our approach includes evaluating recent performances, the quality of opposition and how convincingly they were defeated, each fighter’s physical condition, and execution in prior bouts.

There’s no doubt Dubois has improved — but not drastically. His technical and tactical growth is real, but calling it a full reinvention would be premature. Confidence, however, is crucial — especially for a power puncher. Believing that one clean shot can end the fight is part of his mindset, and in this regard, the Brit has made strides.

But Usyk hasn’t declined. On the contrary, he looked even sharper in his rematch with Fury — fresher, calmer, and more precise in executing his game plan.

That performance showed Usyk and his team are meticulous in their analysis and adjustments — and it’s safe to assume Dubois has been just as thoroughly broken down in their preparations.

Based on all this, and taking prior experience into account, here are our estimated win probabilities:

Oleksandr Usyk – 66%

Daniel Dubois – 34%

A detailed statistical breakdown and full analysis of this rematch are available via the following link.

Photo: Queensberry/Leigh Dawney