Super Bantamweight
95%
% Wins - Prediction by RTF
5%
Иноэ
Winner
KO
Win method
Round amount
Detailed Fight Review
Naoya Inoue is a versatile boxer. He can fight off the counter, be the aggressor, but what he does best is apply a steady, nonstop pressure on his opponent. Thanks to his smart distance-cutting and powerful punch, his rival is constantly on edge and knows that any mistake could end the fight. Under that kind of stress, any boxer is more likely to slip up.
Interestingly, Kim boxes in a similar style. He doesn’t bounce around the ring much, stepping forward flat-footed. He can also push forward on the attack or work off the counter. Plus, like Inoue, he loves targeting the opponent’s body. The only difference is the overall level of boxing skill.
After all, Naoya is one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the sport. He’s focused, precise, and his attacks feel inevitable. Kim, on the other hand, does make mistakes – whether throwing shots or trying to pin his rival against the ropes. That’s what the Japanese star should exploit.
Inoue is actually a year younger, but his experience simply can’t be compared to that of the Korean. Naoya is a two-time undisputed champion who regularly fights elite opponents and division leaders.
Kim got this fight by chance. Sam Goodman, who was supposed to face Inoue, pulled out of the bout twice. Both times, it was due to an eye injury—first a cut, and then it worsened right before the rescheduled date. As a result, Kim steps in on short notice against a boxer who is far beyond anyone he has previously faced.
Number of Punches Thrown in Recent Fights
Both fighters are economical. They invest in power shots and frequently go to the body.
Inoue averages around 400–500 punches thrown, but he hasn’t needed to go the full 12 rounds in quite a while. In fact, not since 2019, when he went the distance against Nonito Donaire.
Kim fights in a similar manner, throwing roughly the same number of punches. He, too, hasn’t seen a 12-round fight for a long time—and not only because of early knockouts. The last time he was scheduled for 12 rounds was also in 2019, but he won early. Since then, he’s had only eight- or ten-round fights, with just one of those (an eight-rounder) going the distance.
Inoue is actually a year younger, but his experience simply can’t be compared to that of the Korean. Naoya is a two-time undisputed champion who regularly fights elite opponents and division leaders.
Kim got this fight by chance. Sam Goodman, who was supposed to face Inoue, pulled out of the bout twice. Both times, it was due to an eye injury—first a cut, and then it worsened right before the rescheduled date. As a result, Kim steps in on short notice against a boxer who is far beyond anyone he has previously faced.
Number of Punches Thrown in Recent Fights
Both fighters are economical. They invest in power shots and frequently go to the body.
Inoue averages around 400–500 punches thrown, but he hasn’t needed to go the full 12 rounds in quite a while. In fact, not since 2019, when he went the distance against Nonito Donaire.
Kim fights in a similar manner, throwing roughly the same number of punches. He, too, hasn’t seen a 12-round fight for a long time—and not only because of early knockouts. The last time he was scheduled for 12 rounds was also in 2019, but he won early. Since then, he’s had only eight- or ten-round fights, with just one of those (an eight-rounder) going the distance.
Naoya typically fights twice a year. This will be his first bout of 2025, and he plans for at least one or possibly two more—depending on the outcome of this initial fight.
Kim fought once in 2022, twice in 2023, and once in 2024. He had a layoff between 2019 and 2022.
The clear advantage in consistency goes to Naoya.
Kim hits hard—over 60% of his victories have come by stoppage. But the key question is: whom did he knock out? Mostly mid-level opponents who can’t be compared to Inoue. Even so, caution is needed: this guy punches with force and accuracy.
Inoue, meanwhile, is unmistakably a knockout artist. Over 90% of his wins come by KO, and more importantly, he excels at delivering that finishing blow. He doesn’t always knock the lights out with a single shot, but he knows how to create situations where his rival either takes the decisive punch or breaks under a barrage of power shots.
Last year, Inoue showed that he’s human after all. In his first fight of 2024, against Luis Nery, Naoya ate a solid punch and went down for the first time in his career. However, Nery is a top-tier puncher—one of the hardest hitters Inoue has ever faced.
Kim has never lost inside the distance. But he’s never been punched by someone on Inoue’s level.
This will be Inoue’s fifth fight at Ariake Arena. He has yet to leave that venue without an early finish:
- Paul Butler – KO 11
- Stephen Fulton – TKO 8
- Marlon Tapales – KO 10
- TJ Doheny – TKO 7
For Kim, this is his first bout at Ariake Arena and his third fight in Japan overall. In the previous two, he won—once by stoppage and once by judges’ decision.
Obviously, this is a huge opportunity for Kim. But preparing for just two weeks to face “The Monster” is a massively risky proposition. A victory would mark perhaps the biggest upset in boxing history and surely guarantee a lucrative rematch—a powerful motivation.
For Inoue, things aren’t entirely simple either. He lost his fight with Goodman twice. He spent a long camp preparing for an opponent who was going to move and rack up volume punches, and now he must face someone with a completely different style—albeit a style that might be more convenient for Naoya.
Inoue merely needs to do his job: fight calmly and effectively. The main pressure on him is that everyone expects a swift knockout, which may or may not come as quickly as hoped.