Fight Analytics

What makes this matchup intriguing is the uncertainty around how the fight will play out stylistically.

Typically, both Jake Paul and Julio César Chávez Jr. prefer pressing forward and applying pressure. However, Chávez is long past his prime, and his current conditioning and intent are question marks.

Most likely, the Mexican will fight as he always has—moving forward, looking to trap Paul and throw combinations. But it's far from guaranteed he’ll dictate the pace. In fact, Jake may well force Chávez onto the back foot, at least in stretches, depending on how the early rounds unfold.

A clear divide: Paul is 28 years old, Chávez Jr. is 39.

In terms of experience, it’s no contest. Chávez has faced Canelo Álvarez, Daniel Jacobs, Brian Vera, Sergio Martínez, Andy Lee, and more. Paul’s opponents, though often famous, are retired MMA fighters and aging boxers—a very different level of experience.

Jake Paul has been the more active puncher in recent outings—even when factoring in the low-volume exhibition vs. Mike Tyson.

Paul averages around 224 punches per fight. Chávez trails significantly at 116 punches on average.

Paul’s volume increases in later rounds—he comes on strong after Round 6. Chávez’s work rate tends to decline as the rounds go on.

Interestingly, both men land at about 34% accuracy, meaning Paul's growing volume may carry more value over time.

Credit where it's due—Jake Paul fought three times in 2024, stopping Ryan Bourland, Mike Perry, and beating Mike Tyson by decision.

Chávez, by contrast, returned from a three-year layoff for just one fight in 2024, where he narrowly outpointed Uriah Hall, a former MMA fighter with only one prior pro boxing bout.

Both men can punch. Paul’s power shines in motion—he hits hardest when bursting in from range. Chávez has the better pedigree and knows how to work the body and head. If he lands clean, Paul will have to survive.

Though Jake talks KO, he’ll have to be wary of the veteran’s counters, especially if he gets greedy in exchanges.

Chávez has only been stopped twice: by Fonfara and Jacobs. Even Canelo couldn’t stop him. He’s tough, no doubt—but can he keep up with the pace at 39?

Paul’s chin has proven durable. He’s taken shots from Nate Diaz, Anderson Silva, Tommy Fury, Tyron Woodley, and even Tyson—without wilting.

While Chávez will draw support from Mexican fans, Paul has an enormous global following. Fan support is likely to be split, with no decisive home advantage for either fighter.

This one’s personal for Jake Paul. He sees Chávez as a former world champion. A common opponent with Canelo, with whom Jake has long-standing beef

That’s why Paul is aiming not just to win—but to stop Chávez, ideally faster than Canelo did.

For Chávez, this is an opportunity to remind fans he’s not just a surname. He’s the first world champion Paul has faced who's not a retired legend, and if he’s got anything left, now is the time to prove it.

Bottom line: Paul needs this win to stay relevant and push toward a real title shot. A stoppage would be ideal—but even a clear victory keeps his campaign alive. For Chávez, this might be one last payday—or one last statement.